The Centre for Research and Security Studies states that in 2024 Pakistan had a total of 1,166 terrorist attacks and counter-terrorism operations which resulted in 2,546 fatalities and 2,267 injuries. Among them 685 fatalities were of military personnel. According to Pakistan’s DG Inter Services Public Relations “383 officers and soldiers died while neutralising 925 terrorists through nearly 60,000 intelligencebased operations.” This was the deadliest year for security forces and the country in terms of terrorist incidents. Attacks on Pakistan’s security forces have been rising since the emergence of the Taliban government in Kabul. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan alone accounted for 94 per cent of fatalities and 89 per cent of incidents.

There were also a number of attacks on Chinese workers employed in the CPEC, which is also guarded by two corps of the Pakistan army, leading to anger from the Chinese leadership. It was frustration at being unable to stem these attacks that compelled Pakistan to launch its airstrikes on Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) training camps situated in the border regions of Afghanistan. Pakistan has repeatedly been accusing the Taliban of providing sanctuaries to the TTP. The Kabul leadership, on the other hand, has been claiming that either the TTP does not exist on its soil, or that Pakistan can negotiate with it. Recently the Taliban Information Minister, Khairullah Khairkhwa, mentioned that Kabul would continue providing shelter to the TTP as they are its ‘guests.’

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This varying stand has been the bone of contention between Islamabad and Kabul. As per the Taliban, Pakistan’s air strikes killed almost 50 civilians in Patika, all Pashtun refugees from Pakistan and mostly women and children. Pakistan later admitted to the air strikes, claiming it targeted TTP camps only while Shehbaz Sharief again sought improved ties with Kabul. He said, “We have conveyed to the Afghan government that we desire good ties with them but TTP should be stopped from killing our innocent people.” Pakistan claims these strikes were aimed at protecting its citizens from attacks emanating from across the border. However, for the Taliban it was a violation and an attack on their soil, to which they were compelled to respond.

In response, the Taliban moved its forces and attacked Pakistan troops and its posts along the Durand Line. While Pakistani media admitted to few casualties, the Taliban claimed many more. The truth would be somewhere in between. The Taliban has repeatedly threatened Pakistan that any attempt to militarily engage it would be catastrophic. It cites failures of Great Britain, the Soviet Union and the US in suppressing it. Recently Pakistan has begun threatening to capture the Wakhan Corridor, linking Afghanistan to China. This corridor is Afghanistan’s Chicken’s neck. This would give Pakistan direct border access with Tajikistan, thereby enabling it to give a boost to anti-Taliban groups, currently operating from Tajikistan. Pakistan has repeatedly closed its borders with Afghanistan attempting to apply pressure of trade on it.

However, with India and Iran opening the Chabahar port there has been little impact. It even raised Kabul’s support to the TTP in the UNSC to little effect. Pakistan is aware that in the current circumstances it would face little international criticism for cross-border strikes. The major reason is that Israel has been doing the same in recent times. Further, these actions would convince the Chinese that it is acting against groups which target them and the CPEC. It also internally covers their failure in curbing terrorism by projecting support from an external entity. As a perpetual excuse, every terrorist group acting against the Pakistani state is being billed as being supported by India. Attacks in Afghanistan indicate a possible change to this theory.

Pakistan has been able to take aerial action with impunity because Afghanistan lacks resources to defend its airspace. Pakistan hesitates to attempt a ground invasion aware that it would be countered fiercely by the Taliban. It has also not attempted to capture parts of Afghanistan for the same purpose. The targeting of Pashtuns on the Afghan side will anger Pakistani Pashtuns adding to support for the TTP. A major lesson which emerges for Pakistan is that supporting terrorist groups does not pay. It backed the Taliban for decades in its fight against the US and NATO forces. It hoped that the Kabul regime would play second fiddle to it and could also be exploited to enhance terrorism in Kashmir. Islamabad had hoped that Afghans would be grateful to Pakistan, but the reverse happened. It is the most hated nation in Afghanistan, while India is the most loved. In fact, Kabul is closer to New Delhi than Islamabad. India fought for the freedom of Bangladesh from Pakistan in 1971. It supported the state in its formative years.

It has over decades backed the country financially and diplomatically and resolved all territorial disputes with it. Post the recent coup, resulting in the overthrow of the Sheikh Hasina regime, the scenario has reversed. India is no longer considered as the architect of its freedom. The anti-India wave is far higher than ever before. Dacca is now closer to Islamabad than New Delhi. While Pakistan may launch limited strikes in Afghanistan, it will continue to engage them, hoping the leadership will see the light. Its economic threats by closing the border and other means of coercion are being offset by other nations opening doors. India too continues to engage diplomatically and economically with Dhaka, including providing it food grains at discounted rates, hoping it is able to stem the anti-India tide and keep relations on an even keel.

If antiIndia groups are provided bases in Bangladesh at some time, India may run out of patience and be compelled to act. The recent visit of the Indian Foreign Secretary, Vikram Misri, was aimed at conveying this message. This is happening because both Afghanistan and Bangladesh are dominated by Islamists, who tend to ignore global norms. While Dhaka has still not opened doors for anti-India terrorist groups on its soil, the possibility of it happening looms large. While the Taliban appear to have forgotten Pakistan’s backing and support, Bangladesh was thus far grateful to India only because it was ruled by descendants of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, the founder of the country. With the end of the Sheikh Hasina regime everything has changed.

(The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.)